It’s that time again sports fans – another month enters the annals of history.
This was a big one! There were several large events in Europe and the UK this month including the 57 man British Championship. The US also saw a large event in the STC as well as a slew of smaller events. This period* measured 1638 games played which is the most in Longshanks history! So Congratulations to my buddy Sam as well as everyone in the Guild Ball Community worldwide. It’s always good to be growing.
But Lon, what do you see in your backwards looking crystal ball? Oh I’ll tell you. I see many things. I see plans within plans.
Brewers take the top slot at 11.3% Played Rate. No shocker here – people love Brewers right now. Most of the New Beginnings models boosted their Guild’s figures, but none as much as Vet Decimate. Her power level is almost certainly responsible for the vast number of brewers lately. In Fact, in July you were 50% more likely to see a Brewers player than any other Guild. Esters beat out Tapper 2:1 as well. The Faithful models may bring a few folks back to their core Guilds, but if you’re going to be successful in competitive event right now you certainly need a solid plan for the Esters/Decimate game plan.
Fish come in second this month with a Played rate of 10.6% which is led mostly by Shark. This makes sense considering Shark is a solid drop into Rage and Tapper. He also has an even game with Esters, so it would seem Fish, aside from their general popularity, could be looked at as an anti-meta tech choice.
Butchers actually take the 3rd spot this month with 9.9%. This is a pretty fair spike for the Red team. It’s the most they’ve been played in about 9 months. Something to keep an eye on.
Oddly, despite the perceived (an actual) power level, union only clocked in at 9.2% of the global Meta this month, just barely above average.
On the low end of the Played Rates this month we see Farmers dip below Alchemists at 5.3% and 5.5% of the Meta respectively. We also see folks continue to leave Obulus and crew at home as they’ve done all year.
Union Clocked in with the best win rate for the 4th month running. July did take a bit of a dip though down from 60.9% to 58.6%. We also see Fish and Brewers rise up in July. Fish gained 3.2% to 56.2% and Brewers gained 3.5% to 56.8% win rates. In retrospect it is easy to see why these 3 Guilds eat up a solid 3rd of the player base right now – they’re simply strong.
A quick shout out to all my Alchemists out there pulling in some Ws. The July 53.6% Win Rate comes in at 4th place. It’s also the 2nd month in a row we see Alchemists digging themselves out of the hole. Smoke herself, taking up 2/3rd of the matches, is even a bit higher at 54.9%. It always feels like whenever there is a particularly strong Take-Out Meta Alchs and Fish show up to be the heroes (or villains).
Despite their popularity, June’s Cinderella Butcher story did not continue – They fall back below 500 in July with a middle of the road 47.2% Win Rate.
On the extreme low side we see the even struggling morticians and blacksmiths at 45.7% and 44.5% respectively. At the tail end of course we find the lowly rats at 41.9%. Sad for Piper and his crew, but at least they climbed out of the dreaded 30s. I’m hopeful the Falconers’ and Navigators’ more defined playstyle will steer them away from a similar Minor Guild fate.
None of July’s stats broke the 2nd Standard Deviation. This large month more or less solidified some conventional knowledge with a few welcome gems sprinkled in.
August should be interesting with the release of The Faithful box. I don’t think anyone would be surprised to see Union continue to dominate with the addition of two very powerful models. In fact, I am a little worried about the rest of Season 3’s balance. Despite Union being extremely powerful and slightly overrepresented Season 3.4 is in a reasonable state of balance. I worry Seasoned Spigot and Vet Fangtooth may tip the scales for the few months leading up to season 4.
However, other Guilds are getting updates as well. Vet Chisel seems like a missing piece which could lift Masons out of Mediocrity. At minimum I absolutely expect their played rate to jump a few ticks in August. The already strong Fish gain a new model in Vet Sakana, which I’ve theorized is particularly good against the Meta-Heavy Brewers. I’m cautiously optimistic Veteran Cinder might pull the Blacksmiths out of the Gutter and I don’t think Vet Calculus will hurt Alchemists either.
Time will tell! Do you have any bold predictions for the rest of Season 3? Only a few months to go until Season 4!
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(*Note, as Longshanks lumps weekends together, Saturday June 30th is included in this data.)