Into the Record Books: August 2018

*Ahem* Let me get this out of my system real quick…

what year2

Ok! Hi there everyone! While August wasn’t the busiest month in Guild Ball, it did have several very large national level events. Let’s crack into some numbers shall we?

 

Played Rates:

Played High

At the top spot for this month is Fishermen clocking in at 11.5% of the games played in August. This isn’t particularly surprising given fish have made up a heavy chunk of the meta for several months now. Their perceived (and actual) strength remains strong as they tend to be a little bit of a meta breaker. If you’re headed to an event in the near future you’ll certainly want to have a plan in place to defend against Fish.

Coming up 2nd is… Blacksmiths? Huh? 9.5% this month. Looks like everyone wanted to try out Veteran Cinder. I am skeptical this trend will continue, but maybe she turns a corner for them. In third is hunters coming in at 9.4%.

What I think is most surprising, however, is who isn’t in the top 3. Union and Brewers fall to 4th and 5th respectively with 9.2% and 8.9% of games played. Are folks simply tired of playing Rage and Decimate? Because it sure does seem like the power level is still there.

Played Low

On the lower half of the Played Rates we see Rats and Farmers near the bottom at 5.4% and 5.1% of games. The lowest played rate for August goes to King Midas and his alchemists, as they continue to sneak under the radar despite relative success.

 

Win Rates:

Win High

Union rakes in another W for highest win rate at 60.7% for August. This is the 6th highest win rate in season 3 history, right behind their June performance. Surly this is bolstered by the temporary inclusion of the very strong Veteran Fangtooth and Seasoned Spigot. There don’t seem to be any signs of union losing their throne until Season 4 Rotates.

As mentioned at the top, Alchs take the #2 slot this month with 54.5% WR followed by fish at 53.1%. Oddly enogh brewers fell below 50% for the first time since Deci releae. Do I have de-ja-vu or have we seen this before… hmm. Sometimes the more things change the more they stay the same.

Win Low

Rats finally climbed out of their hole and are not featured in the lowest WR guilds! Hurrah! Farmers, however, are still suffering at a miserable 39.5% taking the lowest spot. Interestingly enough Engineers are also in the tank this month at 43.3%. This is their lowest finish in a year and a half. What’s going on with the cogs guys? I thought Harriet was supposed to launch you to new heights? Morticians, despite a major tourney win this month, still only win 45.3% of the field. This matches the blacksmiths, tying for 3rd worst. Interesting to see such a resurgence in played rate for the Smiths, but not much to show for it. Maybe Veteran Cinder is more bark than bite? Stay tuned!

 

Special Feature – Amongst the Stars:

A few weeks ago I put together some information regarding the “Guild Leaders”. Folks always seem to want to dismiss certain data points by saying things like “well what about tournament winners” or “what about extremely skilled players?”. I thought I might take that to task quickly and see what kind of differences can be observed amongst the Guild Ball Gods.

Below is the Combined W/L record of the top 10 “guild leaders” for each team for the entire Season 3.4 period (March to August)

W-L top 10

There are some similarities here, as Union clearly stays on top. They’re good among us peons and even better at the top end. Brewers, despite not having Decimate for several months of this data, are also still pretty ridiculous in the hands of the most talented. Let’s take a look at a comparison between Baseline WRs to the WRs of the top players

top 10 diff

Man, Hunters really take it up a notch in the hands of the right person. It’s also interesting to see Brewers and Union have high ceilings, proving skill matters even amongst the most powerful teams. Engineers jump pretty high as well.

Blacksmiths seem reasonably average. Another interesting point is to see fish don’t actually change that much relative to the field. Perhaps ol Shark/Corsair have a high floor and a high ceiling?

I am sad for Farmers and Rats that even the best of um us seem to be able to make um work that well. Then again Niclas won Swedish Nats with Rats this month, so maybe there is hope for piper and crew after all.

 

Anyway – Thanks as always for reading! What are you seeing locally in your area? Any bold predictions for the last few months of season 3?

 

 

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