Holy crap we have data. Feels like forever since we did a proper month end recap! Hopefully now post SCUS/SCUK we’ll start settling in to a nice groove. For comparison purposes I’ve left the last 3 months of season 3 on the graphs. October was also a transitional period of mixed Season 3 and Season 4 data, so that’s grouped by itself.
There are a couple of major US events coming up in December, but let’s go ahead and take a look at where we’ve been this November. Introducing Meta period 4.1 – Spooky Ladies!
Surprising absolutely no one: Morticians, Butchers, and Hunters lead the pack in played rate at 11.9%, 11.5%, and 11.5% respectively. As I’ve mentioned on a couple recent episodes of Anatomical Precision, these are the teams you’re gonna wanna have reps into prior to any large events.
What is a little surprising is the jump to the next highest team, blacksmiths, is more than 1.5% below hunters at 9.9%. There is a nice little grouping of teams in this slightly above average category ranging from 9.9% to 8.3%.
After this we see a pretty steep drop off. Brewers look to remain relevant at 6.5%, but everyone else is in the 4s or less. Minor guilds are suffering especially hard at the start of season 4 with falconers at a shocking 2.3%. Normally numbers that bad are reserved for the month immediately surrounding release. In fact, we’ve never seen an established product with a rate this low. Poor falconers don’t even make it past the bottom of the graph.
Skatha and Theron scream past the competition in our opening month with a staggering (Hi Sherwin) win rate of 60.1%. This win rate is the 8th highest of recorded history and more than 6 points higher than the second place front runner morticians. After this, despite all the underrating, my slippery friends find their way into the third place slot for the season opener.
Order is a bit of a surprise clocking in at 52.6%. Although they only had 77 games, those folks must know something the rest of the world doesn’t. The much more popular butchers and alchemists are nipping at their heels though with 51.3% and 51.1% respectively.
Another surprise is farmers holding their own in the midfield (heh). Farmers had suffered significantly throughout the end of season 3, but perhaps their slightly simplified style and souped up playbooks are allowing them to approach 500. Masons, Blacksmiths, and Brewers hold unexciting finishes.
Look at that mighty union rollercoaster dive. Despite some notable tournament finishes, we do see Union, Engineers, and Ratcatchers slinking around the bottom of the pack around 41%s. Can’t get much worse than that… unless you’re a bird… 32.1% is literally the lowest win rate in recorded longshanks history. If they stay down here for another few months I really think the devs are gonna have to consider a hotfix; especially considering I can’t be bothered to change the axis minimum.
I was going to do a joke here about tier shelves, because it sure does seem like the played and win rates sort themselves into nice little buckets, but then an actually useful idea emerged from the wank dungeon. What would it look like if we mapped raw wins?
To arrive at the raw win # I simply multiplied the # of games played by the % win rate. Pretty basic, but I don’t know that anyone else has really looked at this before. By merging the two measure we arrive at kind of gives a… uniquely holistic view of the scene? I’m going to Coin this idea “the victory index” and guess what? It’s terrifying.
4 Guilds, (Hunters, Morticians, Butchers, and Alchemists) account for HALF the wins in Guild Ball competitive play. The next 3 (Blacksmiths, Fishermen, and Farmers) account for the next 25%. That leaves the remaining 7 Guilds splitting the last 25%.
In my opinion this doesn’t strike me as particularly surprising, but is somewhat revealing. It wasn’t a bold prediction for these top 4 guilds to see a lot of play and do well; after all they largely had the most exciting changes as well as generally felt powerful on paper. Granted the index does face some slight problems especially at the lower end of the spectrum. To illustrate the problem we need look no further than our friend Henry Kay, winner of the SCUK LCQ. Henry’s success with Union adds 8 games to the union bucket. Essentially, due to the team potentially being underplayed, it is easier to affect that win rate, and thus the union’s index.
I do think the top end here is potentially concerning. We all know Gamers tend to gravitate towards the strong, but to see things in this stark contrast is eye opening. The top 2 Guilds have as many wins as the bottom 7. Yikes. Has Season 4 really saved us all? It’s certainly invigorating, but I wonder if the November victory index is an early sign intervention being necessary, specifically tied to too many folks piloting hunters to success.
I do think as the “Spooky Ladies” meta matures we will see some evening out, but really only time will tell. Thanks as always for reading folks and stay tuned!
(meme credit: Ric Fernandez @cosmicfuture)